000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011543 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E AT 01/1500 WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N108.3W. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N90W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E TO 13N114W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N119W TO 08N131W. ITCZ FROM 08N131W TO 1011 MB LOW 07N139W TO 07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... THE WAVE FORECASTING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E HAS BEEN BOOSTED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL AND GFDL BASED WAVEWATCH-III GUIDANCE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WIND FORCING FROM THESE MODELS IS LOW COMPARED TO THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW 15 FT...IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AS PREDICTED. WINDS AND SEAS FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL DIMINISH AFTER LANDFALL IN MEXICO LATE ON MONDAY OR EARLY ON TUESDAY. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA AT 34N144W. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS PRODUCING FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE TRADEWINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME FRESH BREEZE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY...THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY WITHOUT ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHWESTERLIES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GULF AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PREDICTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE FORCING IS MODERATE AND STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE GRIDDED FORECASTS FOR THE WINDS TODAY ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TOGETHER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND FIELD FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E. $$ LANDSEA