000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

1007 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 15.5N109W...OR ABOUT 300 NM SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING N AT 6 KT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES 
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE...ALONG WITH 8 
TO 11 FT SEAS INDICATED BY AFTERNOON ALTIMETER DATA.THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 18N111W BY 48 HOURS WITH GRADUALLY 
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED 
MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A HIGH CHANCE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 10N90W TO 15N94W     
TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N108W TO 08N126W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 09N130W TO 10N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE W 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 119W AND 128W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 135W AND 137W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 
94W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA    
NEAR 32N111W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE 
NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 27N126W. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FARTHER   
W-SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N136W. THE TROUGHING AND LOW REMAIN 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH AN OVERALL 
RELAXED PRES GRADIENT KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS AT LIGHT TO 
MODERATE LEVELS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT N OF 10N W OF 110W AT THE 
SURFACE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER 
THAT AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE 1010 MB REMNANT LOW OF RAYMOND IS NEAR 21N115W. FRESH WINDS 
AND SEAS TO 7 FT REMAIN IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY 
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA. THIS REMNANT LOW IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS DOMINATED BY 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N94W THROUGH 14N120W TO BEYOND 
14N140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGING IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN 
THE SECTION ABOVE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS INCREASED TO FRESH  
TO STRONG LEVELS S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO UP TO 8 FT. BY FRI MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... 
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE. 

$$
LEWITSKY