000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 15N108W MOVING N AT 5 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG 
109W TO 18N PROVIDING FOCUS FOR UNORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IS ALSO NOTED 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER MAINTAINING SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT 
RANGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST AND 
SOUTH QUADRANTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS 
WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EXISTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 15N103W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N108W TO 09N125W TO 09N133W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N133W TO 08N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 
107W...FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W...FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 118W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 
127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                            
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER ARIZONA NEAR 
35N112W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE 
NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 28N125W. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FARTHER W-
SW TO 26N136W. EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE TROUGHING AND 
LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WITH 
AN OVERALL RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NE TRADES 20 KT OR 
LESS...AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT N OF 15N W OF 110W WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS DOMINATED BY 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER 
THIS RIDGING IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

FINALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 TO 9 FT 
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE.

$$
HUFFMAN