000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W...OR 400 NM SSW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO WITH FRESH WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT SEAS WITHIN 300 
NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH 
TO STRONG LEVELS BY TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
TO 11 FT INTO FRI. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE N WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N100W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 14N108W TO 8N125W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 106W-110W AND FROM 8N-13N 
BETWEEN 110W-116W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...   

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
32N120W TO 26N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N 
OF 20N W OF 115W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM A NEARLY 
STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N94W TO 
15N115W TO 13N140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS 
HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 19N W OF 122W MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND 5 
TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 
HOURS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 9 FT BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE 
ON FRI.

$$
DGS