000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING NEAR 13N108W...OR 391 NM 
SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO WITH FRESH WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT SEAS 
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY THU EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT INTO FRI. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT SECTION. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE N WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR    
12N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W TO 06N126W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ 
IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
210 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 06N88W TO 09N91W TO 11N96W...WITHIN 210 
NM NW OF A LINE FROM 16N97W TO 11N102W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 115W...AND ALSO FROM 15N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N122W TO 26N138W. 
THIS TROUGHING WAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED 
INTO THE NE WATERS AND OVER NW MEXICO YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE 
DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS 
DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT 
NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
20N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS RIDGING IS HELPING TO 
SUPPORT SPORADIC CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RAYMOND AT 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N114W. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS LINGER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

1026 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N143W WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH 30N120W TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N110W...AND 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 28N137W TO 16N124W. MODERATE N TO 
NE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N 
OF 10N W OF 110W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 TO 9 FT BY THU 
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE 
ON FRI AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS TO THE N.

$$
LEWITSKY