000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

BROAD 1009 MB LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING NEAR 13N108W WITH FRESH 
WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FT SEAS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS BY THU WITH 
ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT BY FRI. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT SECTION. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO SLOWLY MOVE N WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR     
13N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N108W TO 06N127W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ 
IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM S OF A LINE FROM 06N78W TO 08N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W...FROM 
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W...FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 113W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF A LINE FROM 07N126W TO 11N132W TO 09N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N120W TO 27N135W. 
THIS TROUGHING WAS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED 
INTO THE NE WATERS YESTERDAY AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS DOMINATED BY UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THIS 
RIDGING IS HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RAYMOND AT 1008 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
21N115W. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS LINGER IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THESE 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

1027 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 32N141W WITH ONE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
THROUGH 31N120W TO 28N114W...AND ANOTHER THROUGH 24N130W TO 
18N121W. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 10N W OF 110W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
MARINE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 TO 9 FT BY THU 
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE 
ON FRI AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS TO THE N.

$$
LEWITSKY