000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 114.3W 
AT 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 310 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SW WITH 
CONVECTION FAR REMOVED TO THE NE FROM THE CENTER. SEE LAST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 13N100W TO 
13N113W TO 09N126W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 10N136W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 
84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W 
AND 95W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W 
AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 132W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER WYOMING WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N117W AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 
A BASE NEAR 24N123W. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY NOTED AS A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH FOLLOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA NEAR 31N129W THIS MORNING. OVERALL THE 
TROUGHING REMAINS WITHIN DRY AND STABLE AIR WHICH IS LARGELY 
SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING N OF 15N W OF 110W WITH THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION BEING TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND. RAYMOND IS QUICKLY 
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE 
TROUGHING IS LEADING TO ITS QUICK DEMISE AS A POST-TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE 
HAS SHEARED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER AS MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 
20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N96W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER W-SW TO 
16N110W TO 13N140W. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED GENERALLY FROM 09N TO 13N E OF 120W 
THAT IS GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A 
FEW AREAS OF EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST 
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED NEAR 14N101W. TO THE WEST OF THIS 
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 12N108W...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
TURNING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH 
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW AND SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT 
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W. BY EARLY FRIDAY...A WEAK 
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND DRIFT NORTHWARD 
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LIKELY STEERED NORTHWARD BY THE 
TROUGHING ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. IT 
APPEARS THE GFS...NAVGEM...AND UKMET ARE MORE KEEN ON DEVELOPING 
THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE ECMWF REMAINS 
WEAKER.

$$
HUFFMAN