000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 115.7W AT 
0900 UTC OR 440 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SW WITH CONVECTION FAR 
REMOVED TO THE NE FROM THE CENTER. RAYMOND WILL WEAKEN TO A 
REMNANT LATER TODAY...THEN WILL DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR  MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO 12N95W TO 14N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 
11N117W TO 7N125W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 11N134W TO 10N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W TO 
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 97W-109W AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 133W TO 
136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N120W TO 27N136W. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS SE 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN INTO 
NW MEXICO. SW WINDS SE OF THE TROUGH ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N 
OF 22N W OF 120W. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W TO 
15N120W TO 12N140W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK AND THE TRADES 
ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND THE SEAS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN AREA 8-9 FT SW SWELL IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 105W-109W. AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA NEAR 
16N107W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS