000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300238
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 116.3W AT 30/0300 
UTC OR 421 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOVING 
NNE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SW WITH NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 90 AND 300 NM IN 
THE NE QUADRANT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY WED EVENING...TO A REMNANT LOW BY THU MORNING... 
THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR   
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N102W TO      
11N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ IS NOTED 
E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 83W... 
FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W...FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 
96W AND 107W...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W...FROM 08N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM S CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM 
32N110W TO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 
PORTION THAT DID EXTEND W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS 
DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. N OF 23N W OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...N-NE MODERATE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE 
PRESENT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH OUR 
NORTHERN BORDER SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 106W HAVE BEGUN TO GENERATE SW 
SWELL OF 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WHICH WILL BUILD SHORT PERIOD SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT. AN 
AREA OF LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 
MEXICO NEAR 15.5N108W BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO 
BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS.

A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF 
ENDING WITH RESIDUAL MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS FROM 
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. THE MERIDIONAL PRES GRADIENT 
FORCE DRIVING THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MONSOON TROUGH BY 
THU NIGHT SW OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WHICH MAY ENHANCE WINDS 
TO FRESH LEVELS...BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

THE FORECAST WINDS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF 
MODELS ALONG WITH THE WIND RADII GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC ADVISORY 
ON TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
PRIMARILY FROM THE MULTI-GRID WAVEWATCH-III FOR MUCH OF OUR 
AREA...SUPPLEMENTED BY WAVE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GFDL-BASED NPH 
AND ECWAVE MODELS FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND.

$$
LEWITSKY