000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 116.6W AT 29/2100 
UTC OR 461 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOVING 
NNE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SW WITH NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM IN THE N 
AND NE QUADRANTS. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WED AFTERNOON...TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE 
WED NIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22    
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 12N100W TO 11N110W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N135W TO 09N140W. 
NO ITCZ IS NOTED E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 82W...FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W 
...WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W 
AND 106W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W...FROM 06N TO 
09N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 
136W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS 
STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM 32N112W TO ACROSS THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 29N120W TO 30N131W. THIS 
FRONT IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 
FT SEAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY EXIST WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT THAT WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN 
BORDER SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 106W ARE PREDICTED TO GENERATE 
SW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW IS 
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF MEXICO IN TWO TO 
THREE DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT.

A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF 
ENDING WITH RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 
13N98W. THE MERIDIONAL PRES GRADIENT FORCE DRIVING THIS SHOULD 
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST WINDS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF 
MODELS ALONG WITH THE WIND RADII GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC ADVISORY 
ON TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
PRIMARILY FROM THE MULTI-GRID WAVEWATCH-III FOR MUCH OF OUR 
AREA...SUPPLEMENTED BY WAVE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GFDL-BASED NPH 
AND ECWAVE MODELS FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND.

$$
LEWITSKY