000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291503 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE OCT 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 18.3N 119.6W AT 1500 UTC ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. RAYMOND IS SHEARED FROM THE SW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND IS MOVING SLOWLY N OR 5 DEG AT 5 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH OCCURS FROM 10N86W TO 13N93W TO 10N109W...RESUMES FROM 11N119W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 09N137W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK COOL FRONT HAS REACHED OUR AREA AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WESTWARD TO 31N133W. THIS FRONT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY EXIST WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT THAT WILL REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER SHOULD ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. A LARGE FETCH OF FRESH BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 105W ARE PREDICTED TO GENERATE SW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW IS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF MEXICO IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH N WINDS 20-25 KT. THE MERIDIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE DRIVING THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TODAY. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPECER IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AT THIS POINT. THE GFE WINDS ARE BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ALONG WITH THE WIND RADII GUIDANCE FROM THE NHC ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. THE GFE WAVES ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE MULTI-GRID WAVEWATCH-III FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...SUPPLEMENTED BY WAVE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GFDL-BASED NPH AND ECWAVE MODELS FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. $$ LANDSEA