000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 17.6N 117.0W AT 0900 UTC  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. RAYMOND IS SHEARED FROM 
THE SW WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM 
OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. 
RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON WED. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 13N90W TO 10N105W TO 12N112W...RESUMES FROM 
12N118W TO 9N125W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 10N113W TO 1012 MB LOW 
PRES AT 9N136W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 92W-101W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N120W TO 26N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 23N W OF 120W.  A 
90-95 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N135W TO CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SW FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING 
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NE OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 115W TOWARD 
MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING TRADE 
WINDS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL BE 
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY IN 
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TODAY.

$$
DGS