000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE OCT 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 17.2N 117.0W AT 29/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 605 SM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. RAYMOND IS SHEARED FROM THE S WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 360 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND IS MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 05 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 10-11N THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST AT 11N86W...THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 10-12N TO 12N110W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 12N118W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 09N123W...THEN NW THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 11N133W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N93W TO 14N104W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 17N109W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 13N114W TO 10N121W TO 12N122W...AND FROM 10N129W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF N AMERICA AND CONTINUES SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N117W AND THROUGH AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE AT 27.5N128.5W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS RACING NE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24N124W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE ALSO ADVECTED RAPIDLY NE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE MERGED AND NOW DENSE MOISTURE PLUME IS FANNING OUT AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO...SE ARIZONA...SE NEW MEXICO...AND MOST OF TEXAS...AND NOW TURNING E ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N139W WHICH IS DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER PLUME ORIGINATING W OF 140W...WITH THE MERGED PLUME CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 18N122W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N93W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 14N113W...WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING SW TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 11N136W. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND HAS MOVED N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO SHEAR THE CYCLONE FROM THE SW WHILE ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE W SEMICIRCLE OF RAYMOND. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE W OF 83W...ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT ONE LAST NORTHERLY SURGE AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUE. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N104W ON TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW TO NEAR 13N107W LATE WED. AS THE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFT NORTHWARD THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW S OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 6-9 FT...ACROSS THE AREA FROM 07-10N BETWEEN 100-107W ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED. $$ NELSON