000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 16.8N 116.9W AT 28/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 620 SM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. RAYMOND IS SHEARED FROM
THE S WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM
OF 17N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE NE QUADRANT. RAYMOND IS
MOVING N OR 005 DEG AT 06 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND
THE FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
10N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 10-11N THEN ACROSS 
NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST AT 11N86W...THEN 
CONTINUES NW TO 12N95W...THEN TURNS W TO TO 12N103W...THEN NW TO 
14N109W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 13N119W...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH 
11N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 15 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N91W TO 09N106W AND N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N97W TO 
14N105W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 
13N115W TO 11N119W TO 12N122W...AND FROM 10N134W TO 08N140W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF N AMERICA AND 
CONTINUES SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N120W AND THROUGH 
AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N130W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
CONTINUING SW TO BEYOND 23N140W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. A FAIRLY DENSE 
UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS RACING NE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N126W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE IT MERGES WITH THE MOISTURE FROM 
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE MERGED PLUME IS FANNING OUT AS IT 
CONTINUES NE ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO...SE ARIZONA...SE NEW 
MEXICO...AND MOST OF TEXAS. 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
07N140W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 10N132W OVER THE 
WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
N AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER PLUME ORIGINATING W OF 140W...WITH THE 
MERGED PLUME CURRENTLY REACHING NEAR 18N122W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 
20N94W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW THROUGH ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE AT 13N113W WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING SW TO A SHARP 
CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 11N126W. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND 
HAS MOVED N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE W SEMICIRCLE OF RAYMOND CIRCULATION. 
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN...OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS 
REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE 
PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT ONE LAST NORTHERLY 
SURGE AT 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON 
TUE.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N104W ON TUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW TO NEAR 13N107W LATE WED. AS THE LOW AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH LIFT NORTHWARD THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW S OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...SEAS 6-9 FT...ACROSS 
THE AREA FROM 07-10N BETWEEN 100-107W ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  

$$
NELSON