000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 117.0W AT 1500 UTC. 
ESTIMATED PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
IN THE N AND 45 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT. RAYMOND IS 
MOVING N...OR 350 DEG AT 07 KT. RAYMOND IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN 
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER 
N INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...COOLER 
WATERS...AND DRIER AIR...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W TO 11N100W TO 13N112W...RESUMES FROM 
13N122W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INFLUENCING 
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N AND IS ALONG AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 32N123W THROUGH 27N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND 
ELSEWHERE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N120W TO 20N140W.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE TROUGH WAS ADVECTING MAINLY HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE NE OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 120W TOWARD MEXICO AND 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF WEAKENING  HURRICANE 
RAYMOND. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING TRADE 
WINDS THAT ARE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL 
BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY IN 
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL PULSE 
OCCASIONALLY THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN FINALLY WEAKEN TO 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$
COBB