000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280936 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 16.0N 116.9W AT 0900 UTC. ESTIMATED PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N QUADRANT. RAYMOND IS MOVING N...OR 350 DEG AT 07 KT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 12N86W TO 11N100W TO 13N112W...RESUMES FROM 13N124W TO 10N133W. ITCZ 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 98W-102W. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 115W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING TRADE WINDS THAT ARE ONLY FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT LATER TODAY THEN ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT. THE GAP WIND EVENT WILL THEN FINALLY WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. $$ DGS