000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280238 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 15.3N 116.8W AT 28/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 690 SM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM NE AND WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N QUADRANT OF CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING NNW...OR 335 DEG AT 08 KT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N75W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 11-12N TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT 10N85W...THEN CONTINUES WSW TO 10N98W...THEN NW TO 12N102W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 11N117W AND EXTENDS SW TO 09N122W THEN NW TO 10N125W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ... WHICH IN TURN EXTENDS W TO 10N133W... THEN SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N87W TO 14N100W TO 13N108W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N132W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED ELONGATED CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 31N130W...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 26N140W. THIN UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND IS RACING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS BARELY EVIDENT AT 29N131W...AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE THE NE SURFACE WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W BY SUNRISE MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN THAT AREA ON MON...WITH THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXING ON MON NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N138W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 16N101W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO A CREST OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO ACROSS TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THEN TURNS E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N101W THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE EXTENDS S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 07N BETWEEN 74-110W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT A NORTHERLY PULSE OF 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON MON... THEN REPEAT AGAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. $$ NELSON