000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 14.5N 116.6W AT 27/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 725 SM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING NW...OR 305 DEG AT 08 KT. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH INTO TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT 10N85W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 11N104W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 11N117W AND EXTENDS SW TO 09N126W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ... WHICH IN TURN EXTENDS NW TO 11N130W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N80W...OVER AND S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N86W TO 11N90W TO 09N106W...N OF THE THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N92W TO 12N108W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 08N123W...AND S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N132W TO 07N138W TO 08N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM 34N122W TO 32N129W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W. THIN UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AND IS RACING NE WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE CROSSING OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. AN ASSOCIATED 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 30N132W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SE BUT DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW INCREASES THE NE SURFACE WINDS TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W BY EARLY MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN THAT AREA ON MON...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING MON NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 08N140W TO 06N132W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 16N100W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO A CREST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND TO A CREST AT 13N121W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS STREAMING N AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THEN TURNS E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N100W ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE EXTENDS S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 07N BETWEEN 74-120W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT A NORTHERLY PULSE OF 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON MON. $$ NELSON