000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 14.2N 116.0W AT 1500 UTC.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING 
WNW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH BY MONDAY 
AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. 
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AND REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH 
MONDAY...BUT AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TUESDAY AS IT TRACKS 
THROUGH INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST 
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N104W...RESUMES FROM 
11N119W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM N OF E OF 102W AND W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N127W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N112W.  THE 
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RATHER WEAK HIGH/RIDGE AND 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING TRADEWINDS THAT ARE ONLY FRESH 
BREEZE OR WEAKER THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.  NO TRADEWINDS OF STRONG 
BREEZE OR STRONGER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT 31N132W WITH A TROUGH 
TRAILING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 29N138W.  THIS IS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N138W. WHILE 
NO STRONG BREEZE OR STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
THIS TROUGH...A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY OF 8 
FT NW SWELL IS ANTICIPATED. THE LOW/TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE ON 
MONDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MID-WEEK.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE 25 KT 
RANGE WITH SEAS 8 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT LATER TODAY 
THEN ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT.  THE SAME PATTERN 
IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE GAP WIND EVENT 
WILL THEN FINALLY WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 
8 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NO ADDITIONAL GAP WIND EVENTS ARE 
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
LANDSEA