000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 13.5N 115.1W AT 0900 UTC.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING 
WNW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NW BY MON AND A 
MORE NLY DIRECTION THEREAFTER. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC 
CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE DAY 
OR SO...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WED AS IT 
TRACKS THROUGH INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 10N86W TO 11N100W TO 13N108W...RESUMES FROM 
11N118W TO 8N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 132W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W. AN 80-85 KT JETSTREAM IS 
SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 30N130W ENE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH WITH TWO 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 
14N119W AND A SECOND ONE NEAR 16N107W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE RIDGE IS HELPING OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE 
RAYMOND.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 19N W OF 112W. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE 
TRADES.

NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE 
WITH SEAS 8-10 FT SEAS...WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS LATER 
TODAY THEN ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THEN FINALLY 
WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON.

$$
DGS