000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN OCT 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 13.2N 114.3W AT 27/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 730 SM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS RAYMOND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING W...OR 275 DEG AT 09 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN WNW ON SUN AND MORE NW BY MON. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE DAY OR SO...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAT BEGINS TO WEAKEN RAYMOND AGAIN LATE MON AS THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK THROUGH INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN PANAMA AND THROUGH COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N87W...THEN TURNS SW TO 10N97W...THEN NW TO 13N105W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 10N117W AND CONTINUES SW TO 08N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH IN TURNS WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN 08-10N TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC EXTENDING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N83W TO 10N91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS NOTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM OF 13N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N118W TO 09N124W TO 06N127W AND S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N130W TO 07N137W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 35N129W...AND IS MOVING SE WITH TIME. A UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA FROM 30N129W TO 25N140W...THEN INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA AT 24N147W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND IS MOVING ACROSS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE... DESCRIBED LATER...AND IS CURRENTLY FANNING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N127W TO 28N136W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS THE UPPER CYCLONE SHIFTS FURTHER SE TONIGHT AN ASSOCIATED 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 32N132W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N130W ON SUN...AND CONTINUE SE DISSIPATING NEAR 28N128W ON MON. THE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT NE SURFACE WINDS TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 132W ON SUN... INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SPREADING SW ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 31N127W TO 25N140W ON MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 17N107 WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CREST OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N128W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SW PORTION NEAR 04N138W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW 180 NM WIDE PLUME FROM 17N130W TO TO 23N122W TO 29N117W WHERE IT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND IS POSITIONED ALONG THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS STREAMING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 20- 26N...BECOMING DENSER AS IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN REINFORCED BY DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN CUBA AS THE PLUME STREAMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 08N BETWEEN 106-115W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N107W AND IS AMPLIFYING E ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AT THE MOMENT. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE EXTENDS S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 04N BETWEEN 74-104W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MERGES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT NORTHERLY PULSES OF 20-25 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING. $$ NELSON