000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT OCT 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 13.1N 113.4W AT 26/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 715 SM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS RAYMOND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND IS MOVING W...OR 270 DEG AT 09 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN WNW ON SUN AND MORE NW BY MON. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE DAY OR SO...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAT BEGINS TO WEAKEN RAYMOND AGAIN LATE MON AS THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK THROUGH INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 09-10N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA...THEN TURNS NW ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO JUST OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AT 11.5N87W...THEN SW TO 10N95W...THEN WNW TO 11N104W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 10N117W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 08N126W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH THEN WIGGLES WESTWARD BETWEEN 08- 10N TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 10N89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS NOTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 240 NM OF 10N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N117W TO 06N127W AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N130W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 35N129W...AND IS MOVING SE WITH TIME. A UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W...THEN INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA AT 24N144W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME HAS MOVED NE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND THROUGH A DOWNSTREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE DESCRIBED LATER...AND IS CURRENTLY FANNING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SW ARIZONA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N128W TO 26N140W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. AS THE UPPER CYCLONE SHIFTS SE TONIGHT AN ASSOCIATED 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 32N132W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N130W ON SUN...AND CONTINUE SE DISSIPATING NEAR 28N128W ON MON. THE GRADIENT W OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT NE SURFACE WINDS TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 132W ON SUN...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SPREADING SW ACROSS THE WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 31N127W TO 25N140W ON MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 17N106W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO CREST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N128W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SW PORTION NEAR 06N138W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE... CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW 210 NM WIDE PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY EVAPORATING NEAR 25N118W. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND IS POSITIONED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS STREAMING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 20-26N... BECOMING DENSER AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 08N BETWEEN 104-118W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N106W TO A CREST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 15N75W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE EXTENDS S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 04N AND W OF 75W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OVER THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MERGES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...EXPECT NORTHERLY PULSES OF 20-25 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING. $$ NELSON