000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 112.6 AT 1500 
UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.  THE FIRST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATED THE SYSTEM IS WELL 
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES AND WHAT MAY BE A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE 
SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT OF THE CENTER. RAYMOND 
IS MOVING W...OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON 
A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAYMOND TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST WHICH STRENGTHENS RAYMOND TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE SUN 
NIGHT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN 
LATE MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W TO 12N92W TO 10N100W TO 13N103W...RESUMES 
FROM 12N115W TO 08N125W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR NEAR 09N132W 
TO 06N137W. ITCZ FROM 06N137W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 91W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 91W AND 94W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                             

WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N129W TO 25N140W. 
FRONT IS RECEIVING WANING  SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 
32N133W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 26N137W BY THIS EVENING. 

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N127W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N118W. THE LIMITED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ONLY 
MODERATE TRADES.

A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 09N132W. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
OF LOW ELY WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE...HOWEVER THE NLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND 
PULSE THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING TO 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON.

$$
COBB