000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 13.1N 111.8 AT 0900 UTC.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS RAYMOND FROM 10N-15N 
BETWEEN 110W-114W. RAYMOND IS MOVING W...OR 265 DEG AT 11 KT AND 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC 
AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS 
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH STRENGTHENS RAYMOND TO 
A MINIMAL HURRICANE SUN NIGHT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A 
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATE MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 
KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W TO 12N90W TO 10N100W TO 11N102W...RESUMES 
FROM 12N115W TO 07N105W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES AT 09N130W TO 
06N137W. ITCZ FROM 06N137W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 91W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 91W AND 94W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                             

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 27N140W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. MOSTLY LIGHT 
WINDS WITH THE FRONT AND SEAS TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 26N137W 
LATER TODAY. 

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N127W WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE 
TRADES.

A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 09N130W. WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE 
OF LOW ELY WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL.

WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE...HOWEVER THE NLY WINDS ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE MORE SUN 
THEN 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT MON.

$$
DGS