000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 13.6N 109.5W AT 25/2100 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 510 SM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS RAYMOND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N107W TO 11N112W. RAYMOND IS MOVING WSW...OR 240 DEG AT 07 KT... AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WSW TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAT BEGINS TO WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 08-09N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N77W TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA...THEN TURNING NW ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 09N95W...THEN DIPS WSW TO 09N95W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N101W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 11N113W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09.5N116.5W...THEN SW TO 07N122W...THEN NW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09N130W...THEN WSW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE PANAMA COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N79W TO 07N89W...AND WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 06-15N BETWEEN 92- 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 09N130W... ROUGHLY WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N128W TO 09N133W. ...DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N132W... TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N130W TO 27N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 31N122W...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS WEAKEND TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N130W TO 26N140W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS W OF THE FRONT ARE AT 6-8 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PROGRESS E TO A POSITION FROM 32N129W TO 26N133W LATE SAT AS ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 7 FT. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE TO NEAR 35N130W ON SAT MAINTAINING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS TO THE W OF 120W AND ZONAL FLOW TO THE E OF 120W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 17N104W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N140W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STEER TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WSW. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH...AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW AT 09N130W...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE... CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY EVAPORATING NEAR 21N120W. UPPER MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND IS STREAMING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 20- 25N...AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE MOISTURE CONTINUING ENE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 09N BETWEEN 88-102W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND TO A GENTLE CREST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR AND TO THE S OF JAMAICA. THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE EXTENDS S ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE N OF 09N AND W OF 78W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOST OF THE UPPER DEBRIS REMAINS TRAPPED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...ALTHOUGH A MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE FORECASTED GALE WARNING...A RECENT SHIP REPORTED THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DIMINISHED. CURRENT SURFACE DATA OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SOON SURGE AGAIN THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...THUS A FORECAST FOR 20-30 KT...SEAS 9-13 FT... CONTINUES THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT. STILL EXPECT LATE PULSES OF 20- 25 KT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ONLY BE AT 15-20 KT LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. $$ NELSON