000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251534 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 109.1W AT 25/1500 UTC MOVING W-SW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF RAYMOND WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NW QUADRANT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AS RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STATUS SAT NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH MON...THEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE MOST RECENT OSCAT PASS SHOWS NLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 13N95.5W WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. EXPECT A DRAINAGE SURGE OF 20-30 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY MON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 10N94W TO 09N98W TO 12N103W...RESUMES AT 11N113W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 09N116W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 08N129W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N129W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUPPORTS THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 25N138W SAT MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW 8 FT. TO THE E OF FRONT...A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 28N129W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. AS THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 08N129W MOVES WWD... EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ONE IS NEAR 09N116W AND THE SECOND ONE IS NEAR 09N129W. A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST ONE AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ GR