000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 14.2N 108.5W AT 0900 UTC. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 104W-111W. RAYMOND IS MOVING W 
OR 260 DEG AT 9 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL 
WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS 
SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL RE-STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE SAT 
NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT 
STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SEE THE 
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LESS 
AGGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THIS GAP EVENT. NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS 
OF 11-17 FT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE N 
CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N96W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HOURS. EXPECT A DRAINAGE SURGE OF 20-
25 KT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. THIS 20-25 KT PATTERN 
REPEATS AGAIN FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
MONSOON TROUGH 9N85W TO 11N101W...RESUMES AT 11N111W TO A 1011 
MB LOW AT 8N120W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 8N128W TO 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W-89W AND FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 27N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
17N110W TO 32N120W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING 
OUTFLOW FOR TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 110W-130W. 

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W. NW SWELLS TO 9 
FT ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND THE SWELLS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS