000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250240 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 14.6N 107.7W AT 25/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 380 SM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. RAYMOND IS MOVING JUST S OF DUE W...OR 265 DEG AT 09 KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WSW TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND WILL RE-STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE OVER THE DAY AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THIS GAP EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS OF 11-17 FT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N95.5W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI...THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. EXPECT A DRAINAGE SURGE OF 20-25 KT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...THEN WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. THIS 20-25 KT PATTERN REPEATS AGAIN FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ONLY BE AT 15- 20 KT LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 10-11N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN DIPS WSW TO 09N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO 12101W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 11N111W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 09N115W...THEN W THROUGH ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 09N128W...THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N81W TO 12N95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N103W TO 09N108W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N133W TO 11N138W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SSE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A BASE AT 24N108W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THIS THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FLARING OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE TURNING E ACROSS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE...EVENTUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N136W...TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 28N140W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS STREAMING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 27N123W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS W OF THE FRONT ARE AT 6-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS- EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS E TO A POSITION FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W LATE FRI AS ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT. A SERIES OF UPPER CYCLONES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC AREA JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING THE NEARLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 11N138W WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE 04N134W. THIS SETS UP AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 17N104W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N137W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINING THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE OVER THE TROPICS AND THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY EVAPORATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND IS NOW STREAMING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 18N102W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 11N BETWEEN 92-104W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N94W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY TO THE E OF 92W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 05N E OF 111W... WHICH INCLUDES THE DENSE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. $$ NELSON