000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242158 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 14.8N 106.8W AT 24/2100 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 335 SM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. N RAYMOND IS MOVING W...OR 270 DEG AT 09 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WSW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND MAY RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON FRI AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GAP WIND EVENT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE THIS GAP EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS OF 11-14 FT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 14N95.5W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI...THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. EXPECT A DRAINAGE SURGE OF 20-25 KT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...THEN WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. THIS 20-25 KT PATTERN REPEATS AGAIN FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ONLY BE AT 15-20 KT LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 10-11N FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN DIPS WSW TO 09N92W...THEN TURNS NW TO 11N101W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 09N112W...THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW PRES AT 09N128W...THEN W TO TO 09N133W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ...WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES WNW TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N77W TO 08N94W TO 15N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N104W TO 09N110W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N132W TO 11N137W TO 10N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA AT 36N116W TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH SSE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N116W TO 26N116W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THIS THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN TEXAS. ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N136W...TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 28N133W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS STREAMING E WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 27N126W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 10-15 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS W OF THE FRONT ARE AT 5-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS E TO A POSITION FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W ON FRI... WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 131-137W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG A POSITION FROM 30N128W TO 26N134W ON SAT. BY THEN THE SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. A SERIES OF UPPER CYCLONES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC AREA JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING THE NEARLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N139W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE 05N132W. THIS SETS UP AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 16N106W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 11N135W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINING THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE OVER THE TROPICS AND THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY EVAPORATING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE S OF 12N BETWEEN 94-104W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N94W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE E OF 94W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 05N E OF 108W... WHICH INCLUDES THE DENSE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. $$ NELSON