000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

AT 24/0900 UTC TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 
105.3W. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED WAS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND 
IS MOVING W...OR 265 DEG AT 7 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY 
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO ENABLE RAYMOND TO RE-INTENSIFY SOME 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS ON RAYMOND.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT WITH SEAS OF 10-14 FT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 15N95W 
TO 13.5N96W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE. AFTERWARDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 
25 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.   

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM 
RAYMOND. IT EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 13N97W...THEN RESUMES FROM 
11N107W TO 08N130W TO 09N133W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 
30 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST AT ONLY 15-20 KT ACROSS 
THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF THE FRONT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 6-8 FT TODAY IN NW SWELL...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND 
REACH FROM 30N129W TO 25N136W LATE FRI NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO BELOW 8 FT. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA 
NEAR 28N128W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N111W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN 
MIXED NW AND SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...ARE OBSERVED FROM 12N 
TO 17N W OF 136W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W TODAY.
 
$$
AL