000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 15.0 103.8W AT 23/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 280 MILES S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N102W TO 17N100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL W OF THE CENTER WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N105W TO 17N105W. RAYMOND IS MOVING JUST S OF DUE W...OR 250 DEG AT 08 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE ENCOUNTERING SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN RAYMOND FURTHER. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST RAYMOND MAY RE-STRENGTHEN SOME IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 99W-102W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS CURRENTLY AT 20- 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 14N95W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT WITHIN THE GALE AREA...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL SPREAD S TO NEAR 13.5N96.5W. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE FRI. ONE LAST PULSE TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SAT...THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E TO W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W THEN BETWEEN 10-11N CROSSING NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W...THEN CONTINUING WSW TO 09N91W...THEN NW TO 12N97W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 12N105W...THEN WIGGLES WESTWARD ALONG 10N TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AT 10N124W...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUING W TO 09N130W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ...WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 05N81W TO 07N84W. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 10N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM 13N99W TO 09.5N105W TO 10N111W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N114W TO 10N121W TO 08N125W TO 11N136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 33N120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA ALONG 21N130W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 14N137W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THIS THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NW OLD MEXICO...SE CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS MOST OF ARIZONA. A RE- ENFORCING NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N133W TO 27N130W AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 20-25 KT...SEAS 6-9 FT...WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS ARE ONLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF THE FRONT... SEAS ARE AT 6-9 FT IN NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS- EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 32N133W TO 26N140W ON THU...THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N133W TO 26N140W ON FRI. BY THEN WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-15 KT NEAR THE FRONT... BUT COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL WILL CONTINUE N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SERIES OF UPPER CYCLONES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC AREA JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 12N114W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 11N136W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINING THE DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE OVER THE TROPICS AND THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ITS EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW TROPICAL PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST AT 13N107W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N79W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SW OVER THE DISCUSSION TO THE NE OF A LINE FROM 05N80W TO 13N100W. SOME OF THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS NOTED N OF 18N BETWEEN 110- 135W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 6-9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...ARE OBSERVED FROM 08-18N W OF 132W. THE EFFECTED AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF 140W ON THU. $$ NELSON