000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RAYMOND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR 
15.4N 103.0W AT 1500 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 
KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE. RAYMOND IS MOVING WSW AT 7 KT AND IS 
CONTINUING TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LARGE 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO 11N94W THEN RESUMES FROM 12N108W TO 
10N130W. ITCZ 10N130W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 
133W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                             
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N122W TO 10N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N113W 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE E SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRES...1019 MB...IS CENTERED CENTERED NEAR 29N131W. 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W 
REMAINS WEAK. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL. HIGHER SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE 
IN NW SWELL ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W.
 
NLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.
 
$$
DGS