000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...   

AT 23/0900 HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 101.9W. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED WAS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. RAYMOND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING IN A GENERALLY WSW 
DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD 
WEAKEN RAYMOND BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY LATE TODAY. HEAVY 
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER...AND JUST INLAND 
THE MEXICAN COAST...FROM 99W-104W...WHERE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM SEAS ARE 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...LARGE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON 
RAYMOND.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SLIT AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE RAYMOND. IT 
EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 12N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12.5N108W TO 
08.5N128W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 119W AND 129W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS CENTERED CENTERED WELL NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 35N157W. THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
FROM THE FORECAST AREA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER 
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL PREVAILS. HIGHER SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL ARE 
NOTED FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W.
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG WINDS WILL START TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BY THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS 
INCREASING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20-25 KT. WINDS WILL 
FURTHER INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 20-30 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
COMBINE WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU MORNING. THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.
 
$$
AL