000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                  
HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED AT 16.3N 101.9W AT 22/2100 UTC OR 
ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 140 NM WSW 
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FAIRLY CONCENTRIC WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. ONE BAND OF 
CONVECTION TO THE NE OF THE CENTER HAS MOVED ABOUT 90 NM INLAND 
MEXICO. RAYMOND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING WSW SOON AND CONTINUE 
TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE 
MAIN THREAT OVER...AND JUST INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST...FROM 98W-
103W...WHERE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD 
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...LARGE 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC...AND THE FULL 
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08.5N77W TO ALONG THE CARIBBEAN 
COAST OF PANAMA...TURNING W AT 10N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N86W...CONTINUING W TO 
10N88W...THEN NW TO 15N97W WHERE IT LOSSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND. 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND AT 14N109W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
10N120W...THEN W TO 10N132W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 06N140W.
 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE 
COASTAL PACIFIC WATERS OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 06N81W TO 09N85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL S 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND...WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 13.5N99W TO 12N105W...AND ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE OF FROM 
13N112W TO 09N124W...AND WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 08-14N 
BETWEEN 125-137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 34N125W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW IN THE AREA ALONG 30N132W TO 20N136W...THEN 
CONTINUING S INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
09N138W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED TO THE E OF THIS UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE SUBTROPICS...WITH THE MOISTURE PROGRESSING E IN 
THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW NOTED TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 135-105W. THE 
MOISTURE MAY PASS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. 
A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 141W TO THE N OF 
24N WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 
135W...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
NW AND GRADUALLY FILL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT TRAIL AN 
UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WED REACHING 
FROM 32N132W TO 25N140W ON THU AND FROM 32N128W TO 25N138W ON 
FRI...BUT ONLY SUPPORTING A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT AFTER SUNRISE 
ON WED. 
  
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 12N111W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 13N131W...AND IS EXPECTED 
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINING THE 
DOMINANT UPPER FEATURE OVER THE TROPICS. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. 
SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO NEAR 17N126W WHERE IS SEEMS TO 
EVAPORATE. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
A CREST AT 14N107W. A SECOND UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC 
ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 05N TO THE E OF 
97W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN...WITH THE RESULTANT DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
SPREADING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 05N AND E OF 87W. TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND IS CENTERED TO THE 
W CREST OF THIS ANTICYCLONE...AND TO E OF THE UPPER RIDGE 
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THUS THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION FOR 
RAYMOND. SOME OF THE DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND IS 
ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS...AND FEEDING INTO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL 
TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS NOTED N OF 18N BETWEEN 110-
130W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT...SEAS 6-9 FT ARE OBSERVED FROM 11-
20N W OF 130W. THE EFFECTED AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK TO 12-15N 
BETWEEN 138W-140W ON THU. 
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SURGE AT 15-20 KT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE 
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY WED EVENING AND 
REACHING AS FAR S AS 13N98W ON THU...AND NEAR 11N97W LATE FRI. 
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DOES NOT SUGGEST A GALE EVENT...BUT DOES 
INDICATE THE NEAR GALE 30 KT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE 
SAT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AT SUNRISE ON SUN. 
 
$$
NELSON