000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                  
HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 102.0W AT 22/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 75 NM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 NM W OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINING STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. THE OUTER 
BANDS OF RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO... 
PARTICULARLY THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. A SLOW MOTION 
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL 
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND 
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SEE LATEST 
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE FULL ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N90W TO 15N97W AND 
RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 09N122W TO 10N133W TO 07N138W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N138W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                             
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
48N134W. AS THE RIDGE SPREADS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. AS A 
RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 
7 FT RANGE IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. A SMALL AREA OF 8 FT SEAS IS 
CONFINED GENERALLY 11N TO 18N W OF 132W.

SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

A GAP WIND EVENT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL 
BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY 
INCREASE TO 30 KT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS 
GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH GALE FORCE LATE ON THURSDAY. THE FIRST 
GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON TYPICALLY OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER.

$$ 
HUFFMAN