000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                   
AT 22/0900 MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 
102.0W AND WAS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
WAS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 120 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 
105W. THE OUTER BANDS OF RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING SOUTH-CENTRAL 
MEXICO...PARTICULARLY THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. A 
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY. 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF 
ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE 
WAVES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE RAYMOND. IT 
EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N91W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N108W TO 
09N120W TO 10N132W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO 
ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 116W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W AND 
132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 133W AND 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 42N135W. THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE 
FORECAST AREA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
PREVAILS. HIGHER SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE HAVE PROPAGATED INTO 
THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

A GAP WIND EVENT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL 
BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASE 
TO 30 KT WED EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH GALE FORCE 
LATE ON THU. THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON TYPICALLY 
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER. 

$$ 
AL