000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220256 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 101.9W AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. RAYMOND IS A SMALL CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE N OF 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE OUTER BANDS OF RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...PARTICULARLY THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. ACAPULCO AND ZIHUATANEJO ARE REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. RAYMOND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TECPAN DE GALEANA AND LAZARO CARDENAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 12N93W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N108W TO 09N120W TO 09N130W. ITCZ IS FROM 09N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND NEAR 12N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 110W. THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRES FROM THE FORECAST AREA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W FROM 09N TO 15N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WHERE THE TROUGH MEETS THE THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...FORECAST TO DRIFT WWD. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. A GAP WIND EVENT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 42-48 HOUR. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO 30 KT WED EVENING. THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH GALE FORCE LATER ON THU. THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON TYPICALLY OCCURRED IN MID-OCTOBER. $$ GR