000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON OCT 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                   
HURRICANE RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 102.2W AT 21/2100 UTC. 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 
110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. RAYMOND IS A SMALL CATEGORY THREE 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE 
FOUND ELSEWHERE N OF 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SOME OF THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO 
AND MICHOACAN. RAYMOND COULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO 
BETWEEN TECPAN DE GALEANA AND LAZARO CARDENAS TONIGHT OR 
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW 
CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER 
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A STORM SURGE IS 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF 
ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE 
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.PLEASE SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N93W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 13N107W TO 09N120W TO 09N130W. ITCZ IS FROM 08N132W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 
05N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W...AND FROM 10N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 46N135W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 110W. 
THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRES FROM THE FORECAST AREA IS 
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 
TO 8-9 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N131W TO 08N132W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WWD. THE 1800 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15-20 KT 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY 
FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W.

SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

$$ 
GR