000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211502
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC MON OCT 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                   
HURRICANE RAYMOND AT 16.3N 102.2W AND REMAINING STATIONARY. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 12N BETWEEN 
100W AND 104W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING 
PARTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. RAYMOND IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND 
LAZARO CARDENAS LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER 
THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS 
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO 
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 11N86W TO 11N90W TO 14N97W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 14N105W 12N107W TO 09N120W TO 09N124W. ITCZ IS FROM 09N124W 
TO 10N128W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 4N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 124W. 

 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1025 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 46N136W. 
THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRES FROM THE FORECAST AREA IS 
MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. 

SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. 

$$ 
FORMOSA