000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC MON OCT 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                   
AT 21/0900 UTC...HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 
102.2W AND REMAINING STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 
105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 120 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. 
SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE 
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO 
APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND LAZARO 
CARDENAS LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE 
CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM 
WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF HURRICANE 
RAYMOND. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N93W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 14N105W TO 09.5N123W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A 
TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
46N135W. THE DISTANCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE 
FORECAST AREA IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL. 

SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED 
NW OF THE AREA ARE REACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC PERIOD... 
WHICH WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACHES SHALLOW 
WATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. 
 
$$ 
AL