000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210304 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON OCT 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RAYMOND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TONIGHT AND WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 21/0000Z NEAR 15.8N 101.9W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT 21/0300 UTC...RAYMOND WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 102.0W MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND LAZARO CARDENAS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N92W THEN RESUMES W OF HURRICANE RAYMOND FROM 13N105W TO 10N117W TO 09N126W. ITCZ IS FROM 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS KEEPING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. SEVERAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. A VERY WEAK SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY MON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N125W TO 07N128W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NW OF AREA ARE REACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD MON THROUGH WED RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY FROM 11N TO 18N W OF 130W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC PERIOD...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACHES SHALLOW WATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. $$ GR