000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                   
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 101.8W AT 20/2100 
UTC MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 
KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE N OF THE CENTER FROM 
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS 
REACHING PARTS OF THE COASTLINE OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. 
RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON. AN EYE FEATURE 
IS ALREADY NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAYMOND IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND 
LAZARO CARDENAS LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS A HURRICANE. 
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY 
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO 
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE 
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
IN FACT...JACATEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA REPORTED AROUND 8 
INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS ENDING THIS MORNING AT 8 AM. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N96W THEN CONTINUES W OF 
RAYMOND FROM 13N107W TO 09N120W TO 07N128W. ITCZ IS FROM 07N128W 
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 
89W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS LOCATED WELL N OF AREA 
NEAR 47N135W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN 
FORECAST WATERS KEEPING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST REGION W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA IS 
NOTED ALONG 135W EXTENDING FROM 14N TO 17N. THE TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS AND WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY MON. A WEAK SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS IS STILL NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WINDS OF 15-20 
KT ON THE NW QUADRANT.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM 
LOCATED NW OF AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS TODAY AND 
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD MON THROUGH WED. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC PERIOD...WHICH 
WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACHES SHALLOW WATER 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS WEEK.
 
$$ 
GR