000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND AT 14.9N 101.8W MOVING NW AT 6 KT WITH
CENTRAL PRES 1000 MB.  WINDS 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER...
EXCEPT 60 NM E QUADRANT.  CONDITIONS AT THE LOWER AND UPPER
LEVELS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAYMOND TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE
FORCE MON  HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND...WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES...POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N96W THEN RESUME FROM 
13N108W TO 07N128W THENCE ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 83W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB WELL N OF AREA AT 47N135W MAINTAINS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS BASIN N OF ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
W OF 110W. SEAS 4-6 FT LIKELY TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT AS DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRES CENTER AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT W OF 140W APPROACH NW
CORNER OF E PAC.  NW SWELL EXPECTED TO ENTER BASIN TUE.  WAVE
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC
PERIOD...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS ALONG PAC 
COAST NEXT WEEK.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES