000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                         
AT 20/0900 UTC...RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS 
CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 101.2W MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
150 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF RAYMOND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ON A NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO 
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON RAYMOND. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM 
RAYMOND. IT EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 16N95W AND THEN RESUMES AT 
12N109W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N115W TO 07N127W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 
07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 260 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...
                                              
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED WELL N OF AREA NEAR 
47N134W. THE DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE AREA 
IS KEEPING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION 
W OF 110W. AS A RESULT...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS IN 
THE 4-6 FT RANGE PREVAIL.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA IS 
NOTED ALONG 132W EXTENDING FROM 15N TO 18N. THE TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY MON.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM 
LOCATED NW OF AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS TODAY AND 
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD MON THROUGH WED. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC PERIOD...WHICH 
WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACHES SHALLOW WATER 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
 
$$ 
AL