000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200257
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                         
THE AREA OF LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES 
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SEVENTEEN-E AT 20/0300 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 
14.0N 100.5W MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A 
TROPICAL STORM BY SUN MORNING AND A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 
ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ENTERING THE 
PACIFIC WATERS NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER...THEN CONTINUES 
TO 1006 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N100W TO 15N106W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N117W TO 07N127W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N127W TO 08N135W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                              
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL N OF AREA NEAR 47N135W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS TO NEAR 21N116W. THE 
DISTANCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE AREA IS KEEPING A 
WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION W OF 110W 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-20 KT SW MONSOONAL WINDS S OF A LOW 
PRES LOCATED NEAR 10N117W. THE LOW WILL DRIFT W THROUGH SUN WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 
0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 17N131W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WWD WHILE WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH...REACHING 135W BY SUN 
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW 
PRES SYSTEM LOCATED NW OF AREA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW WATERS 
SUN AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD MON THROUGH WED. WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF SWELL TRAIN WITH 22-23 SEC 
PERIOD... WHICH WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACHES 
SHALLOW WATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
 
$$ 
GR