000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191632
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
LOW PRESSURE AT 12N100W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES VERY FAVORABLE FOR ITS
INTENSIFICATION.  SST OF 29 DEGREES C...ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE...GOOD MECHANICAL UPLIFT AT THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH
LIGHT DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT MAKE THIS FEATURE A GOOD CANDIDATE TO
MONITOR FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BRING
THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTH WITHIN 24-48 HOURS AND IT HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THAT TIME. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 14N92W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES AT 
12.15N 99.6W TO 13N108W TO 1010MB LOW PRES AT 08N121W TO 07N125W
THEN ITCZ TO 07N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM
N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                              
STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 1028 MB WELL N OF AREA AT
47N135W EXPECTED TO DRIFT E MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
TRADES N OF 15N W OF 120W.  SEAS REMAIN UNDER 6 FT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW 
PRES SYSTEM WELL NW OF AREA EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE INTO NW WATERS
SUN THROUGH WED.  WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF 
SWELL TRAIN WITH VERY LONG 22-23 SEC PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE LARGE SURF CONDITIONS AS IT REACH SHALLOW WATER ALONG
PACIFIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
 
$$ 
WALLY BARNES