000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170324 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU OCT 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PRISCILLA IS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 17/0300 UTC AND THE LAST ADVISORY IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 120.9W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT. THE REMNANT LOW OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. IT IS GOING TO BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 1010 LOW PRES NEAR 11N87W TO 09N92W TO 11N100W TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N108W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS. DRY AND STABLE AIR PREVAILS FROM 11N TO 21N W OF 125W AND OVER THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS TO NEAR 110W...INDUCING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 100W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE RIDGE AND GOES FROM 21N109W TO 15N110W...SHIFTING W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 18N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N136W SE TO NEAR 21N111W...AND S ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO 15N. THE WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N108W IS ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND LIMITED CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ITS VICINITY. FARTHER E...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N87W PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. A PAIR OF CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE EFFECTS OF PRISCILLA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS DOMINATING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS NEAR 8 FT. $$ GR