000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED OCT 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 117.9W AT 
16/0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 
KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ 
WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PRISCILLA 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND 
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO 
A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR...COLDER WATER AND A DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND 
THEN DISSIPATE AFTER 72 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W    
TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N107W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N120W TO 
09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N 
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FROM  
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND S 
ACROSS MOST OF THE N WATERS AND IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
ON THE NW SIDE OF PRISCILLA. THE 2030 UTC HI-RESOLUTION OSCAT 
PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-30 KT COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N TO 
21N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W. THE SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED  
TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... 
PARTICULARLY FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 130W.  

THE REMNANT OF OCTAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO  
AND THE UNITED STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENHANCING RAINFALL 
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
LONG TERM TREND IS FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT.
 
$$
GR