000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160150 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF PRISCILLA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PRISCILLA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 15/2100 
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 117.5W MOVING NW 
AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
OF CENTER. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW 
BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER 
WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

AT 15/2100 UTC...OCTAVE IS DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 26.9N 109.4W MOVING N-NE AT 4 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT. AT THIS TIME...THE LAST ADVISORY WAS 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 
ROUGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...COUPLED 
WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED THE 
REMAINING MODERATE CONVECTION MORE THAN 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER. AS A RESULT...OCTAVE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-
12 HRS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N90W TO 
1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N106W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N120W TO 
09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND JUST W OF AFOREMENTIONED 
LOW PRES FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND S 
ACROSS MOST OF THE N WATERS AND IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
ON THE NW SIDE OF PRISCILLA. TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE NOTED PER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... 
PARTICULARLY FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 135W.  
 
LONG TERM TREND IS FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT.
 
$$
GR