000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA NEAR 17.4N 116.5W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING 
NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR  
MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT...BEING SHEARED BY STRONG SE 
WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS. IT IS EXPECTED WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-48 
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25.4N 
110.8W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING ENE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP 
CONVECTION AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT 
WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HRS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N92W TO 
08N95W TO 10N106W...RESUMES FROM 11N118W TO 10N130W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE AND STARTING 
TO IMPACT PRISCILLA AS WELL. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALSO EVIDENT 
NEAR MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 
22N120W...AND TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE NW SIDE OF TS 
PRISCILLA. WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ANALYZED NEAR 10N105W AND 
10N137W HAVE LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 5-10 WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THESE 
LOWS. GFS MODEL SHOWS NE WINDS TO 20 KT DOWNWIND FROM GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND NW WINDS BRIEFLY TO 20 KT IN NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WED MORNING. NEITHER LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE 
SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT. LONG TERM TREND IS FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN 
MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT.
 
$$
MUNDELL